10806, 10834, 10858, 10885, 10927 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures
10762, 10727, 10689, 10633, 10571 Supports
Trade smart and trade well!
As many of you who follow my tweets know I took Friday off and made it a three day weekend after having a great Thursday and then nailing 6E on Thursday night at my 1.3286 (for the second night in a row). So sorry about no TraderSmarts Numbers on Friday. Think this is only the 3rd time I have missed TraderSmarts Numbers (the other two being when my youngest son was born and when my friend died). As I tweeted though - full refunds are available to anyone who requests :)
I hope you had a great weekend and are ready for another great week of trading!
Markets: In the email update for Thursday (and on the blog) I mentioned 2 key numbers. 10820 and 10894 being the squeeze target of over and holding 10820. 10894 ended up being the exact high of the day on Thursday. Friday was a doji. For Monday I am keying on two things (bigger picture) if we can close over the high of Friday and if we can close over the high of Thursday. IMO a close over the high of Friday all but guarantees (and there are no guarantees) a test of Thursday's high. Over Thursday's high and most likely yet another squeeze ensues. In any normal environment the pattern over the last 4 trading days would signify to me to expect a reversal down. Yet this is not a normal environment - apparently we are in some insane environment where the only direction is up.
FROM UPDATE FOR THURSDAY: Okay I noticed some things today that seem appropriate to share. If you recall Tuesday 10831 was the high print on the end of day spike in the YM. At the end of the day yesterday I told my partner in the fund that we should go squeeze to 10894 Wednesday UNLESS we somehow sold off overnight and opened under 10820 and then banged head on 10820 as resistance. We did get selling overnight and I went into the day with 10820 as my line in the sand.
Over that and holding and we had the squeeze target. On any other day prior we would have easily squeezed over that and went to squeeze targets. This morning we hit 10820 to the tick and then sold nicely. If you recall I tweeted that we were moving at ¼ the normal speed and that snapping 10820 or 10780 would double the speed. The snap was to the downside and with volume which has not happened in a while. Then we popped back up to 10815 - on any other day we would have grinded up over 10820 and forced yet another squeeze but today we sold hard again and took out the morning low by a tick, albeit on not as much volume as the first time. Key number one was the noticeable weakness for the first time in a while and that the market couldn't force another squeeze when it had every opportunity to do so. Key 2 is I tweeted about also - the Bearish Harami on the daily chart of a lot of the big indexes most notably the $OEX, $SPX and $RUT. The one on the DIA looks really nice as well. Key 3 is timing that I have in play the 23- 25th. All interesting observations and worth sharing - do with them what you want.
6E/ EURUSD: Two times now (Wednesday night and Thursday night) my 1.3286 number on the 6E has been money. I first mentioned this number on March 2nd, 2010 (see the March 2nd blog post or the email from March 2nd). If the 6E can remain on the north side of this number there is a potential for a CIT to take place with a eventual target of 1.4150.
FROM UPDATE FOR THURSDAY: 6E / EURUSD: A lot of people are talking about how the markets follow the EURO and if the Euro finally bottoms and starts reversing up it will be hard for the markets to sell off. My response to that is that the Euro sure hasn't been following the markets lately J. I think it is possible to get a Euro rally and market weakness at the same time - time will tell on this though. At any rate the Euro is nearing the next key level that I have had (and mentioned before on the blog) for a possible reversal and move up. If we get it the initial swing target would be 1.4150 rough eye. There are some levels I am looking at for this to potentially begin from.
CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for four weeks now. I am still expecting a CIT from this range. If CL can close over the March 17th close then a move to 87.50 is possible. Big picture I still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.
Someone asked me how I can go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for 4 weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those 4 weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.
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