Wednesday, January 21, 2015

This about sums up 2015 so far for me!

Today I thought we would take a look at the trade alerts and specifically YM. I want to focus on YM because after all YM has been the main focus of this blog and additionally I plan to bring more equity/YM back into my own trading this year.

As most of you reading this know I stopped posting the YM trading plan on the blog last Friday January 16, 2015, after doing so every night for for nearly 6 years. The trading plan for Sunday Globex open on January 18, 2015 was the first trading plan created specifically for myself and clients. 

Still that leaves an outlet to share things here that will be helpful to the trading community, for those that for whatever reason only want free stuff, i.e. not TS TradePlan clients. And that's cool. I don't mind providing : )

I posted early on StockTwits/Twitter that we have been trading inside the same Execution/Target Zones since Sunday Globex open on January 18, 2015 and that the TS #'s and Execution/Target Zones have not changed since. It is now mid day Tuesday January 21, 2015 and we are using the same Execution/Target Zones:
Sunday January 18, 2015 Globex open
Sunday January 18, 2015 Globex open - Tuesday January 20, 2015

Wednesday January 21, 2015

Anyway this morning at around 7:45 AM PST and after YM had already found support at Range Long it looked like we were about to momo up so I tweeted such. Sure enough what followed was a nearly 100 tick march up towards Range Short were we promptly found resistance:

Again these are the same Range Long and Range Shorts that have been in existence since the January 18, 2015 Sunday Globex open.

About 9:45 AM PST we started looking at the idea of a range expansion up to break the Range Short / Range Long resistance and support prevalent all week and towards 17667 TS # at top of Highest Odds Short FTU. 

We got long 17457 with initial risk at 17439 on the first low around 9:50 and rode it up to the high at 17494. No scales for me I was looking for a new HOD as noted in the tweet below, some clients may have, there was certainly the option for scales and risk free on cost basis when we hit + 37 MFE. 

Then on the next dip we stalked long again .. this time for a c/b below 17440 TS #. We got filled 437 and 433 on the low tick with a stop at 409 (1 tick over day's LIS) with the premise that day's LIS should not tick again IF the move in fact was going to be up to test HOD at Range Short and potentially over to 17667 TS # at top of day's Highest Odds Short FTU.

YM then traded up to a 17465 high providing nearly 30 ticks of MFE on the long. The option was there for conservative traders to take scratch on the 457 unit and reduce risk on the lower 437/433 adds:

Of course I didn't because you know I'm a pig and the theme this year has been ALL IN for targets so no scale / reduced risk for me. Here is what happened next...

I don't know what the moral of the story is and even though I haven't changed strategy I'm still re-reading this post: "Sports, Trading, and the Psychology of Improvement". Must. Keep. Pressing. On. 

The overall odds are in my favor. I know this. Just frustrating starting any "measurable period" i.e, this year, in such an unexpected and disappointing manner. Personally. The trade plan, however, has been $$. Which makes it even more frustrating :)

- TS

1 comment:

Justinfo said...

Hi Tony,

Don't feel too bad about it! It has been a crappy trading environment for scalping or swing trading. I think you are being a little too hard on yourself for FWIW

Considering that one of these days we are going to see a high momentum breakdown and we have in the past seen high mom v shaped bottoms the odds are in your favor like you said.

Hope the rest of the month goes well!!! Great range numbers BTW, Love having them!!