TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday March 25, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa…

10799 – 10810, 10858, 10894 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10770, 10724, 10689, 10633, 10571 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

Markets: Okay I noticed some things today that seem appropriate to share. If you recall Tuesday 10831 was the high print on the end of day spike in the YM. At the end of the day yesterday I told my partner in the fund that we should go squeeze to 10894 Wednesday UNLESS we somehow sold off overnight and opened under 10820 and then banged head on 10820 as resistance. We did get selling overnight and I went into the day with 10820 as my line in the sand.

Over that and holding and we had the squeeze target. On any other day prior we would have easily squeezed over that and went to squeeze targets. This morning we hit 10820 to the tick and then sold nicely. If you recall I tweeted that we were moving at ¼ the normal speed and that snapping 10820 or 10780 would double the speed. The snap was to the downside and with volume which has not happened in a while. Then we popped back up to 10815 – on any other day we would have grinded up over 10820 and forced yet another squeeze but today we sold hard again and took out the morning low by a tick, albeit on not as much volume as the first time. Key number one was the noticeable weakness for the first time in a while and that the market couldn't force another squeeze when it had every opportunity to do so. Key 2 is I tweeted about also - the Bearish Harami on the daily chart of a lot of the big indexes most notably the $OEX, $SPX and $RUT. The one on the DIA looks really nice as well. Key 3 is timing that I have in play the 23- 25^th. All interesting observations and worth sharing – do with them what you want.

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

6E / EURUSD: A lot of people are talking about how the markets follow the EURO and if the Euro finally bottoms and starts reversing up it will be hard for the markets to sell off. My response to that is that the Euro sure hasn't been following the markets lately J. I think it is possible to get a Euro rally and market weakness at the same time – time will tell on this though. At any rate the Euro is nearing the next key level that I have had (and mentioned before on the blog) for a possible reversal and move up. If we get it the initial swing target would be 1.4150 rough eye. There are some levels I am looking at for this to potentially begin from.

CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for four weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range but prepared for a move up to 87.50 if we can close over the close of March 17, 2010. I do still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how I can go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for 4 weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those 4 weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

Have you voted in the new polls yet? If not scroll down to the bottom of the right side bar and vote now!