TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday April 1, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa…

10869, 10885, 10927, 10955 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10824, 10805, 10775, 10689, 10533 Supports

First day of the new quarter. Last full day of the week.

Trade smart and trade well!

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CL: We got the close over the March 17th high Wednesday and so now expecting the extension up to 87.50 from here. Still expecting an eventual 57.50 test but we must expect a move up to 87.50 first. My swing short position that I have been trading around to better the c/b on for five weeks since we entered this range will be closed out on weakness.

From Wednesday CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for nearly five weeks now. I'm Still expecting a CIT from this range. IF CL can close over the close of March 17, 2010 then a move up to 87.5 is possible. Big picture I still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how can I go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for five weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those five weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday March 31, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa…

10838, 10869, 10885, 10927 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10775, 10689, 10633 10571 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

End of month and end of quarter trading – pay attention.

EIA Petroleum at 7:30 PST

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CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for nearly five weeks now. I'm Still expecting a CIT from this range. IF CL can close over the close of March 17, 2010 then a move up to 87.5 is possible. Big picture I still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how can I go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for five weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those five weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday March 30, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10834, 10858, 10885, 10927 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10817, 10775, 10727, 10689, 10633, 10571 Supports

Trade smarts and trade well1

Only a small percentage of subscribers have actually voted in the polls. Take a moment if you have not and go vote now by scrolling down the right side bar until you get to the polls. Thanks!

CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for nearly five weeks now. I'm Still expecting a CIT from this range. IF CL can close over the close of March 17, 2010 then a move up to 87.5 is possible. Big picture I still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how can I go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for five weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those five weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures and notes on 6E & CL - Monday March 29, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10806, 10834, 10858, 10885, 10927 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10762, 10727, 10689, 10633, 10571 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

As many of you who follow my tweets know I took Friday off and made it a three day weekend after having a great Thursday and then nailing 6E on Thursday night at my 1.3286 (for the second night in a row). So sorry about no TraderSmarts Numbers on Friday. Think this is only the 3rd time I have missed TraderSmarts Numbers (the other two being when my youngest son was born and when my friend died). As I tweeted though - full refunds are available to anyone who requests :)

I hope you had a great weekend and are ready for another great week of trading!

Markets: In the email update for Thursday (and on the blog) I mentioned 2 key numbers. 10820 and 10894 being the squeeze target of over and holding 10820. 10894 ended up being the exact high of the day on Thursday. Friday was a doji. For Monday I am keying on two things (bigger picture) if we can close over the high of Friday and if we can close over the high of Thursday. IMO a close over the high of Friday all but guarantees (and there are no guarantees) a test of Thursday's high. Over Thursday's high and most likely yet another squeeze ensues. In any normal environment the pattern over the last 4 trading days would signify to me to expect a reversal down. Yet this is not a normal environment - apparently we are in some insane environment where the only direction is up.

FROM UPDATE FOR THURSDAY: Okay I noticed some things today that seem appropriate to share. If you recall Tuesday 10831 was the high print on the end of day spike in the YM. At the end of the day yesterday I told my partner in the fund that we should go squeeze to 10894 Wednesday UNLESS we somehow sold off overnight and opened under 10820 and then banged head on 10820 as resistance. We did get selling overnight and I went into the day with 10820 as my line in the sand.

Over that and holding and we had the squeeze target. On any other day prior we would have easily squeezed over that and went to squeeze targets. This morning we hit 10820 to the tick and then sold nicely. If you recall I tweeted that we were moving at ¼ the normal speed and that snapping 10820 or 10780 would double the speed. The snap was to the downside and with volume which has not happened in a while. Then we popped back up to 10815 - on any other day we would have grinded up over 10820 and forced yet another squeeze but today we sold hard again and took out the morning low by a tick, albeit on not as much volume as the first time. Key number one was the noticeable weakness for the first time in a while and that the market couldn't force another squeeze when it had every opportunity to do so. Key 2 is I tweeted about also - the Bearish Harami on the daily chart of a lot of the big indexes most notably the $OEX, $SPX and $RUT. The one on the DIA looks really nice as well. Key 3 is timing that I have in play the 23- 25th. All interesting observations and worth sharing - do with them what you want.

6E/ EURUSD: Two times now (Wednesday night and Thursday night) my 1.3286 number on the 6E has been money. I first mentioned this number on March 2nd, 2010 (see the March 2nd blog post or the email from March 2nd). If the 6E can remain on the north side of this number there is a potential for a CIT to take place with a eventual target of 1.4150.

FROM UPDATE FOR THURSDAY: 6E / EURUSD: A lot of people are talking about how the markets follow the EURO and if the Euro finally bottoms and starts reversing up it will be hard for the markets to sell off. My response to that is that the Euro sure hasn't been following the markets lately J. I think it is possible to get a Euro rally and market weakness at the same time - time will tell on this though. At any rate the Euro is nearing the next key level that I have had (and mentioned before on the blog) for a possible reversal and move up. If we get it the initial swing target would be 1.4150 rough eye. There are some levels I am looking at for this to potentially begin from.

CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for four weeks now. I am still expecting a CIT from this range. If CL can close over the March 17th close then a move to 87.50 is possible. Big picture I still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how I can go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for 4 weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those 4 weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

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Bearish Harami - Wednesday March 24, 2010

The Bearish Harami that I tweeted about earlier that formed today on a lot of the equity indexes. This is the daily YM cash session.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday March 25, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa…

10799 – 10810, 10858, 10894 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10770, 10724, 10689, 10633, 10571 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

Markets: Okay I noticed some things today that seem appropriate to share. If you recall Tuesday 10831 was the high print on the end of day spike in the YM. At the end of the day yesterday I told my partner in the fund that we should go squeeze to 10894 Wednesday UNLESS we somehow sold off overnight and opened under 10820 and then banged head on 10820 as resistance. We did get selling overnight and I went into the day with 10820 as my line in the sand.

Over that and holding and we had the squeeze target. On any other day prior we would have easily squeezed over that and went to squeeze targets. This morning we hit 10820 to the tick and then sold nicely. If you recall I tweeted that we were moving at ¼ the normal speed and that snapping 10820 or 10780 would double the speed. The snap was to the downside and with volume which has not happened in a while. Then we popped back up to 10815 – on any other day we would have grinded up over 10820 and forced yet another squeeze but today we sold hard again and took out the morning low by a tick, albeit on not as much volume as the first time. Key number one was the noticeable weakness for the first time in a while and that the market couldn't force another squeeze when it had every opportunity to do so. Key 2 is I tweeted about also - the Bearish Harami on the daily chart of a lot of the big indexes most notably the $OEX, $SPX and $RUT. The one on the DIA looks really nice as well. Key 3 is timing that I have in play the 23- 25^th. All interesting observations and worth sharing – do with them what you want.

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

6E / EURUSD: A lot of people are talking about how the markets follow the EURO and if the Euro finally bottoms and starts reversing up it will be hard for the markets to sell off. My response to that is that the Euro sure hasn't been following the markets lately J. I think it is possible to get a Euro rally and market weakness at the same time – time will tell on this though. At any rate the Euro is nearing the next key level that I have had (and mentioned before on the blog) for a possible reversal and move up. If we get it the initial swing target would be 1.4150 rough eye. There are some levels I am looking at for this to potentially begin from.

CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for four weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range but prepared for a move up to 87.50 if we can close over the close of March 17, 2010. I do still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how I can go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for 4 weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those 4 weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

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TraderSmarts Subsscriber Numbers for the YM, ES, 6E, & CL - Wednesday March 24, 2010

I have included the TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers on the blog today as a bonus…

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Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10894, 10858, 10810, 10776, 10724, 10689, 10633, 10571

TraderSmarts Numbers for the ES

1178.75, 1175, 1172*, 1165.5, 1160.25, 1156.5, 1151.25, 1146.5, 1141

TraderSmarts Numbers for the 6E

1.3642, 1.3567, (1.3537 - 1.3527*), 1.3511, 1.3493, 1.3433, 1.3418, 1.3397, 1.3286

TraderSmarts Numbers for CL

83.59, 82.70, 81.99, 81.86, 81.54, 80.85, 80.73, 80.40, 80.21, 79.7, 78.78

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Oil Inventories today at 7:30 AM PST

Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for four weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range but prepared for a move up to 87.50 if we can close over the close of March 17, 2010. I do still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how can I go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for 4 weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those 4 weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

Have you voted in the new polls yet? If not scroll down to the bottom of the right side bar and vote now!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday March 23, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10737, 10771, 10812 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10711, 10694, 1630, 10571, 10470 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for four weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range but prepared for a move up to 87.50 if we can close over the close of March 17, 2010. I do still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how can I go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for 4 weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those 4 weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

Have you voted in the new polls yet? If not scroll down the to bottom of the right side bar and vote now!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday March 22, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10677, 10699, 10724, 10757, 10777 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10630, 10604, 10571, 10539, 10470 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 range has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better c/b for four weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range but prepared for a move up to 87.50 if we can close over the close of March 17, 2010. I do still expect an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Someone asked me how can I go from expecting a CIT in my range to now saying I'm prepared for a move up to 87.50. We have been in this range for 4 weeks - first hitting the lower end of it on 2/19/2010. It wasn't until the Update for March 18th that I first mentioned 87.50. If you look at the chart - on March 17th we had the highest close of the entire 4 weeks AND closed OVER the top of my range for the first time in those 4 weeks. And this followed a sharp reversal down and then up - indicating strength. Now we have sold off again. Anyway with the strength of the reversal and the close over the high of the range for the first time I had to look for targets above if we broke up, instead of down as I am expecting. 87.50 is the logical target if it can break up out of this 79.7 - 82.7 range I have had for over a month. I am expecting a CIT and move back down to 76 minimum but time will tell and markets are not static. We must be prepared for everything.

Please take a moment and go VOTE on the new polls on the blog. Scroll down to the bottom of the right side bar on the blog to cast your vote now!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday March 19, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10733, 10757, 10777 Resistance on the YM Emini futures

10722, 10690, 10673, 10647, 10604, 10571, 10539

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Every test of the upper end of my 79.7-82.7 has been met by hard selling. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better the cost basis for the past four weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range but prepared for a move up to 87.50 and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday March 18, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10675, 10699, 10732, 10757 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10647, 10604, 10571, 10539, 10470, 10395 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Two tests of the upper end of my 79.7 - 82.7 range and a NICE FAST DUMP each time - Wednesday and Friday of last week. A third test Tuesday of this week met by selling but not as strong selling like last week. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better the cost basis for the past four weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range but prepared for a move up to 87.50 and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday March 17, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10651, 10599, 10757 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10605, 10560, 10533, 10470, 10395 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Two tests of the upper end of my 79.7 - 82.7 range and a NICE FAST DUMP each time - Wednesday and Friday of last week. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better cost basis for the past three weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL

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TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers for the YM, ES, CL & 6E - Tuesday March 16, 2010

FOMC Today – Trade accordingly. I Put the TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers on the blog today as a bonus...

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10757, 10699, 10651, 10618, 10606,10582, 10560, 10533, 10470, 10395

TraderSmarts Numbers for the ES

1167.75, 1159, 1154.5, 1150.5, 1146, 1143.25, 1140.75, 1134.25, 1129

TraderSmarts Numbers for the CL

83.59, 82.7, 82.18, 81.93, 80.77, 80.47, 79.7, 79.09, 78.86, 77.61, 76.25

TraderSmarts Numbers for the 6E

1.3838, 1.3802, 1.3779, (1.3741 - 1.3732*), 1.3717, 1.3699, 1.3668, 1.3640, 1.3592

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Two tests of the upper end of my 79.7 - 82.7 range and a NICE FAST DUMP each time - Wednesday and Friday of last week. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better cost basis for the past three weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL

6E: Needs to clear the 1.3741 – 1.3732* zone for a move higher.

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday March 15, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10598, 10618, 10642, 10699 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10560, 10532, 10508, 1070, 10433, 10373, 10283 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Latest Daily Chart Update - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Two tests of the upper end of my 79.7 - 82.7 range and a NICE FAST DUMP back through 2X now - Wednesday and Friday of last week. I have been trading around a swing short position in my range to better cost basis for the past three weeks now. Still expecting a CIT from this range and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL

Please VOTE on the new polls on the blog. Scroll down to the bottom of the right side bar on the blog to cast your vote now!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday March 12, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10547, 10560, 10618 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10528, 10502, 10470, 10433, 10373 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: See the new blog post - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Closed over the midpoint of the79.7 - 82.7 range so as anticipated the upper end of the range was tested. Tested again on Wednesday (got over 82.7 for the first time since back up to this range and to a high of 83.03 and then DUMPED back under NICELY down to a low of 80.81). Spent the majority of Thursday coiling in the middle of the range from Wednesday. Still expecting CIT from this range and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday March 11, 2010

Rollover is today - the following are for the June contract.

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10479, 10508, 10516, 10560, 1098, 10618 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10433, 10373, 10288, 10239 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: See the new blog post - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Closed over the midpoint of the79.7 - 82.7 range so as anticipated the upper end of the range was tested. Tested again on Wednesday (got over 82.7 to a high of 83.03 and then DUMPED back under NICELY down to a low of 80.81). Still expecting CIT from this range and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday March 10, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10560, 10573, 10618 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10540, 10508, 10470, 10434, 10385, 10333, 10283 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: See the new blog post - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Closed over the midpoint of the79.7 - 82.7 range so as anticipated the upper end of the range was tested. Still expecting CIT from this range and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday March 9, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10546, 10560, 10573, 10618 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10508, 10487, 10470, 10434, 10385, 10333, 10283 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: I am NICELY positioned swing short. See the new blog post - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM from Sunday March 7, 2010

CL: Closed over the midpoint of the 79.7 - 82.7 range so as anticipated the upper end of the range was tested. Still expecting CIT from this range and still expecting an eventual 57.50 test in CL.

Please VOTE on the new polls on the blog! Scroll down to the bottom of the right side bar on the blog to cast your vote now!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday March 8, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10560, 10573, 10618, 10702 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10538, 10487, 10470, 10434, 10385, 10333, 10283

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: See the new blog post - An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

CL: Closed over the midpoint of the 79.7 - 82.7 range. Expecting the upper end of the range to be tested

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An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM Emini Futures - Sunday March 7, 2010

We are at a crucial area for the U.S. Stock Market. Focusing on the YM we made a high for the year on 1/19/2010 at 10687 followed by a Three Black Crows formation on the daily chart that took us down to 10111. In those three days we erased all the gains made since 11/09/09. Since the Three Black Crows pattern we have formed an inverted head and shoulders on the daily chart that has a target of 10817. This target, if hit, would take the YM to new highs for the year.

On Friday March 5, 2010 we broke out in price on every index and over the neckline of the Inv H&S on the S&P 500, SPY, ES and OEX (my leading index). The YM/Dow Cash/ DIA have a more slanted up neckline so while price broke out – it did not snap the neckline convincingly on the YM. At any rate Friday was a breakout but it lacked one key thing – VOLUME. Simply, there was none. Not the type you want to see on a breakout like this anyway.

Backtrack for a minute: After we made the Three Black Crows on 1/24/2010 I did a blog post updating the daily chart. In that post I said: "I do not expect the YM to get back over 10566. I will be targeting 10309 – 10430 for swing shorts." The first time up to that zone YM hit a high of 10434 and then sold off to 10172. However since it took so long (a month) for us to even test this area again when we got back to it I was expecting a little higher and labeled the new zone as 10470 – 10560. This is the area I have been wanting for swing shorts. Friday we hit 10561 on the dot and sold off (albeit only 24 pts). Nevertheless we are in the key zone I have been expecting.

So where do we go from here and what will I be keying on? I can see three potential scenarios playing out:

A. Futures open on Sunday and sell immediately. We open the cash session Monday well off the Friday close (near the highs) and keep selling. Reversal is on.

B. Monday we make a doji type day. Tuesday we reverse down for an Abandoned Baby or Evening Star formation. This scenario seems most likely for the bearish case.

C. Price goes and hits the 10817 Inv H&S target on the YM. Most likely the weekly chart would have negative divergence and this would be a shortable target hit.

Right now I am positioned nicely short in my 10470 – 10560 range and am anticipating Scenario B (or similar – a reversal in this area with no new high being made) playing out. If we are going to go make new highs (Scenario C) there needs to be an influx of volume to the upside. I will be keying on two things that could potentially take me out of my swing short positions: A move over the yearly high at 10687 or a close on the daily chart over 10625. Until one of those two things happens I am happily swing short. Because this week is crucial and things should happen fast from here I will most likely do another daily chart update within the next few days.

Also please remember the paragraph in the original October 25th daily chart update which is worth repeating here: Keep in mind that money in trading is made not by being right in your predictions but by being on the right side of the price action. This is just what I see happening. It could or could not happen. I will not try to force my will on the market. The best traders I know don't care what the market is going to do...they just know what THEY are going to do if the market does A or if the market does B. Much better to be prepared to act on what the market does than to try to predict what it is going to do. All that being said the above is my forecast of how I see price action playing out from here.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday March 5, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10464, 10498, 10515, 10544, 10560, 10566 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10440, 10411, 10377, 10333, 10283, 10215 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

In the 1/24/10 daily chart update I said: "I do not expect the YM to get back over 10566. I will be targeting 10309 - 10430 for swing shorts." The high FTU was 10434 and then we sold nicely down to a low of 10172 Thursday. I have been saying that while I still don't expect it back above 10566 I think the range is probably a little higher to look for swing shorts.

YM: Getting the third higher high this morning mentioned in Thursday's update and hit the lower part of my 10470 - 10560 range for CIT. This range IMO is it. Swing traders be ready - area for getting swing shorts has arrived. NFP this morning - BE READY.

From Thursday YM: Expecting a move to the higher area 10470 - 10560 I have been wanting. Swing Traders pay attention here. 12 pts shy of 10470 Wednesday and selling. ES did hit my key 1124.5 though. Anticipating one more higher high and then that is IT - Goodnight sweet horse.

From Thursday CL: Still expecting CIT in the 79.7 - 82.7 range. Hit the midpoint of this range Wednesday. A close over the midpoint and expecting the higher end of this range to be tested.

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TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers for the YM, ES, CL, & 6E - Thursday March 4, 2010

Decided to post the TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers on the blog today. Please subscribe in the upper right hand corner of this blog to ensure TraderSmarts Numbers for each contract sent before the market opens every day...

Here are your TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM, ES, CL, & 6E for Thursday March 4, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10464, 10404, 10377, 10333, 10283, 10215, 10162

TraderSmarts Numbers for the ES

1124.5, 1121, 1117.25, 1115.25, 1111.25, 1106.5, 1101.5, 1094, 1086.74

TraderSmarts Numbers for the CL

82.7, 81.43, 81.05, 80.60, 80.26, 80.08, 79.59, 79.33, 78.58, 78.04, 77.61, 77.15, 76.25

TraderSmarts Number for the 6E

1.3817, 1.3793, 1.3741, 1.3733, 1.3707, 1.3680, 1.3654, 1.3616, 1.3576, 1.3567, 1.3530

Trade smart and trade well!

In the 1/24/10 daily chart update I said: "I do not expect the YM to get back over 10566. I will be targeting 10309 - 10430 for swing shorts." The high FTU was 10434 and then we sold nicely down to a low of 10172 Thursday. I have been saying that while I still don't expect it back above 10566 I think the range is probably a little higher to look for swing shorts.

YM: Expecting a move to the higher area 10470 - 10560 I have been wanting. Swing Traders pay attention here. 12 pts shy of 10470 Wednesday and selling. ES did hit my key 1124.5 though. Anticipating one more higher high and then that is IT - Goodnight sweet horse.

CL: Still expecting CIT in the 79.7 - 82.7 range. Hit the midpoint of this range Wednesday. A close over the midpoint and expecting the higher end of this range to be tested.

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday March 3, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10402, 10430, 10464, 10525 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10385, 10337, 10283, 10162 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

In the 1/24/10 daily chart update I said: "I do not expect the YM to get back over 10566. I will be targeting 10309 - 10430 for swing shorts." The high FTU was 10434 and then we sold nicely down to a low of 10172 Thursday. I have been saying that while I still don't expect it back above 10566 I think the range is probably a little higher to look for swing shorts.

YM: Expecting a move to the higher area 10470 - 10560 I have been wanting. Swing Traders pay attention here.

CL: Still expecting CIT in the 79.70 - 82.70 range. EIA Petroleum today

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TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday March 2, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10393, 10430, 10464, 10515 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10377, 10354, 10333, 10310, 10283, 10162 Supports

10395 is line in sand for longs. 10283 is line in sand for shorts.

Trade smart and trade well!

In the 1/24/10 daily chart update I said: "I do not expect the YM to get back over 10566. I will be targeting 10309 - 10430 for swing shorts." The high FTU was 10434 and then we sold nicely down to a low of 10172 Thursday. I have been saying that while I still don't expect it back above 10566 I think the range is probably a little higher to look for swing shorts. I did get some short (small size relative) in my range but have felt a little left behind as we sold nicely from my original area without making the higher range I now expected. I would really like 10470 - 10560 area tagged.

YM: Expecting a move to the higher area 10470 - 10560 I have been wanting. Swing Traders pay attention.

From Monday: 6E: Betting against the "Career Trade". Looking for CIT here. Needs a close over 1.3687 to confirm. If this fails I have another area - all I will say for now is it is above 1.3175.

6E: Move up failed Monday. Looking at 1.3286 area for next CIT