Friday, May 24, 2013

Red Fridays

So today I made the cardinal sin of being aggressive on a Friday after a good week and ahead of a long weekend.  And it was on an aggressive trade to boot, stalking short CL at Range Long from my Execution/Target Zones from the TS TradePlan homework I had done the night before.

I had reasons to stalk the breakdown short that were valid:

1. Context of trade since beginning of session in CL. Specifically initial support at Aggressive Range Long into London open then support at Range Long followed by Resistance at Aggressive Range Long on test from below followed by break on volume through Range Long into 93.04 at pit open and subsequent bounce to 93.52. It WAS an aggressive stance to take and I said it a the time. In addition there was positive divergence on smaller time frames on the 93.04 low and it was pit open low.

2. 30/60 min was decidedly bearish though and unless I am picking a turn / CIT (which in this case it would have been at Range Long if I stalked long instead of short) I usually like to trade inline with what the 30/60 min is telling me and use smaller time frames for the executions.

3. Clear HOL FTD target and below that into Extreme on breakdown from Range Long.

Anyway I stalked the aggressive short and kept stalking it aggressively into potential BIL of the 93.52 high and needles to say it never paid off as I clearly had the direction, at least direction from Range Long, plain wrong today.

I stalked short for continuation down keying on Range Long and instead CL reversed, turned up, and then moved higher for the rest of the session... the up move starting from Range Long.

So I had a red day, and after a good week too, which is never fun heading into a long weekend.

I'm not going to get all down about it though. I'm writing this because I have been in the situation before where I've let a bad Friday bum out my weekend and it's not productive. I know there are other traders out there who have been in the same situation or who will be in the maybe they see this, read it, and it helps.


It's not the first time I've had a bad Friday and it might not be the last. The fact is when we enter the market we don't know what is going to happen and sometimes trades don't work. That is trading. I have confidence in my strategy because I know it is profitable and while always mitigating risk I accept losses as part of the process.

I'm posting the CL chart below for oil so you can see what I am talking about above regarding stalking short for breakdown from Range Long:

I will be, for the most part, putting the charts away until Sunday, and spending time this weekend with family. I have some specific activities I want to do with each of my kids. We have a horse running. And there is nothing like quiet peaceful reflection time to think about the many blessing we all share. I like to sit and think and consciously give thanks and feel grateful for my blessings. Even the most basic stuff: vision, hearing, mobility (even with these bum knees now) — each individual breath of life!

 Happy Memorial Day Weekend!

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Thanks for the transparency, Tony... as per usual.

Have a great weekend....