CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Wednesday September 30, 2015

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Wednesday September 30, 2015

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:

 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Tuesday September 29, 2015

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Tuesday September 29, 2015

Private Client Feed Notes

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:

 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Monday September 28, 2015

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Monday September 28, 2015

We only stalked short 1 X Tuesday

Now see if we get 44.34 TS # break and hold and target of Range Long tested or if we hold north of 44.34. 

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:

 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Monday September 28, 2015

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Monday September 28, 2015 

Monday Morning Update

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:

 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

One Benefit of the Private Client Feed

YM TS TradePlan E-mini Dow Chart Review - Friday September 25, 2015

One benefit of the Private Client Feed is the "intraday exhaustion" targets we post for clients.

Case in point Friday:

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:

 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

GC TS TradePlan Gold Chart Review - Thursday September 24, 2015

GC TS TradePlan Gold Chart - Thursday September 24, 2015 - just ahead of pit close.

GC TS TradePlan Gold Chart - into U.S. cash close.

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Tuesday September 22, 2015

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Tuesday September 22, 2015

ES into Tuesday's Extreme Long with this after hour flush...

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

E-mini Dow TS TradePlan Chart Review - Friday September 18, 2015

Can you take the highest probability trade?

We only executed around 1 idea Friday: "Short keyed to Range Long test from below." With the expectation that if we held over Range Long and were stopped on the short .. we would likely switch bias to long side and stalk longs the remainder of the day as long as price was trading over Range Long.

Can you find a high probability area that you can lean on in your trading? It helps! High probability areas where you will likely know quickly if you are right/wrong often offer great trading opportunities. 

Read on to see how we used the high probability area of "short keyed to Range Long test from below" Friday. Does everybody see/understand why this was a high probability area? If not post in the comments. 

YM TS TradePlan E-mini Dow Chart Review - Friday September 18, 2015

Not everyday we get such a condensed distance between Range Long and Extreme Long .. the Contract Notes from TS TradePlan reflected that.

Price moved from LIS at London open to Extreme Long at U.S. cash open.

We stalked short YM on test of Range Long from below...

Friday's Short Trade.

Clients always have the trade plan before price starts trading at London open.

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:

 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Thursday September 17, 2015 FOMC Day

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Thursday September 17, 2015 FOMC Day

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Wednesday September 16, 2015

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Wednesday September 16, 2015

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

CL TS TradePlan / TS Trades Oil Chart Review - Monday September 13, 2015

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Sunday Globex open 9/13/2015 - Monday U.S. Cash close

All day downtrend. We broke under LIS around pit open. Went with short side keyed to LIS on test from below. 

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

Hit and Run Euro Shorts

Hit and Run Shorts, Trading Small.

6E TS TradePlan Euro Chart Review - Sunday Globex open 9/6/2015 - Tuesday Europe open 9/8/2015.

Find something strong to lean on, where you know fast if you are wrong or not, where price doesn't have to move far to tell you, in the example above 1.1220 MTS # + Range Short.

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

Gold on the Verge of a Move

GC TS TradePlan Gold Chart Review: Friday September 4, 2015 NFP

GC TS TradePlan Gold Chart Review: Friday September 4 - 7, 2015 NFP - Sunday globex Open - Labor Day in the U.S.

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

YM TS TradePlan E-mini Dow Chart Review - Wednesday September 2, 2015

YM TS TradePlan E-mini Dow Chart Review - Wednesday September 2, 2015

Focused on oil early so didn't look to YM til later.

30 second chart of the 10 AM  PST - 1:00 PM U.S. cash close

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

Oil Review TS TradePlan / Private Client Feed - Wednesday September 2, 2015

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Wednesday September 2, 2015

Entire Day (as of 12:37 PM PST)

Entire Day (updated as of 11:10 PM PST)

Oil Momentum Short Trade

Oil Long StockTwits / Twitter Alerts

Oil Long Private Client Feed

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

Oil Short / Oil Long — Utilizing the Trading Plan

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Tuesday September 1, 2015

A look inside the day ...

Short Trade

Long Trade

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

Oil Long

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Monday Aug 31, 2015

Contract Notes from TS TradePlan noting the possibility of a potential BIL low into 43.64 TS # 

A view of the BIL into 43.64 TS # 

BIL Move Definition

CL TS TradePlan Oil Chart Review - Monday Aug 31, 2015

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

ES YM NQ TS TradePlan Equity Chart Review - Friday August 28, 2015

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Friday Aug 28, 2015

YM TS TradePlan E-mini Dow Chart Review - Friday Aug 28, 2015

NQ TS TradePlan NASDAQ 100 Chart Review - Friday Aug 28, 2015

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Tuesday August 25, 2015

ES TS TradePlan E-mini S&P-500 Chart Review - Tuesday August 25, 2015

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

Gold Short Trade

GC TS TradePlan Gold Chart Review - Monday August 24, 2015

The Gold Short

Some notes about the trade:

With equity markets experiencing high volatility (the S&P-500 down 150 points in 3 days) you would think that gold would be acting as more of a "flight to safety."

However she wasn't really reacting at all. She managed to find resistance at Range Short overnight and wasn't exactly looking like she wanted to make another surge. We noted the weakness/lack of strength on StockTwits and immediately started stalking short in the private client feed. 

I noted on the StockTwits and Twitter that it's not everyday you can trade gold and get less volatility than equity! Kind of funny that with equity futures halting on Tuesday Gold was actually the tamer instrument to trade. It is not often we get that :)

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Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)

5 Lessons From Friday's Market

YM TS TradePlan E-mini Dow Chart Review - Friday August 21, 2015

 A closer look at Friday's YM chart. I used 30 second candles in the 2 charts below so you can better see the price-action.

1 Short Trade #1 - #4 and 1 Long Trade #5 - #6

1 Momentum Short Trade #1 - #5

What can we learn from this?

It took a while to copy/past the private client feed above. The reason I did is because I think there are a few lessons to be had that could be beneficial to the trading community. I really hope they help someone reading this! 

1. The trades you see are the only YM trades we took as we were focused on CL and GC earlier in the session. Notice the first one wasn't until 9 AM PST. This is 2.5 hours after the U.S cash open. Lesson # 1 "Opportunity is always present." We just have to look for it.

2. The next lesson is something I have been harping on lately, but it is so important. Before I enter a trade, heck before I even start stalking a trade, I want to know if I am going to stalk long or short so one of the first questions I ask myself is "what is the market trying to accomplish." To me this means context, and to understand what it is "trying to accomplish" I look back in time to "what it has done." Anyway Friday at 9 AM PST I determined the context to be "market has broken under Range Long and is trying for Highest Odds Long FTD target." Hence I wanted to short bounces. There, I had direction (knowing I wanted to short) now needed something to lean against. Used 16739 (not a TS # but an Exhaustion Level from the private client feed) and leaned against that, using Highest Odds Long FTD at 16597 TS # as the main target. So lesson # 2 is "Get your target first." Oftentimes the target of a short trade is a Long Execution/Target Zone, as in the example above. 

3. Lesson # 3 is "Counter-trend trades are okay." We just need to keep context in focus. In the long trade we took keyed to Highest Odds Long FTD we scaled to hedge risk then ratcheted up open risk quickly as the trade (a long) was counter-trend to the dominant direction of the market at the time (short). Still BSO (best scale out) was + 99 ticks.

4. On trade # 3 the best entry was when we scaled the last of our long at 16994. High tick of that rotation was 16698 and it never ticked that high again for the rest of the session. We scaled last long at 11:01 AM PST and you can see at 11:18 AM PST I noted "may have missed the turn down." At 11:20 took a break, refreshed, then came back and stalked the last trade of the day. It ended up being a momo short for continuation down to Friday's Extreme Long (still the likely target for this Sunday - Monday). Lesson # 4 is "It's okay to take a break." When it became apparent we might have missed the turn down, and being unsure if we actually had, instead of stalking something again right away — I walked away. Took a little break (23 min) came back refreshed and with a fresh perspective (and 23 min more of price action to gain context from) and feeling refreshed, better prepared and more confident to stalk something new.

5. The last trade we took was a momentum down at 16561. I might add nearly 150 ticks below where we scaled the last of our long at 16694. I rarely trade momo (and especially in equity) and my thoughts on momo are contained in the notes in the chart above, but lesson # 5 is "Adapt to the current market context." While I rarely take momentum entries there is a time and a place and being able to identify those times and places and take advantage of them is what separates the pros from the novices. If you want to up your game you must learn how to trade all types of markets. It wasn't easy for me to adapt momentum into my strategy, but I did it. 

Hopefully this post helps! What other lessons can you learn from this post? What lessons did you learn in your own trading of Friday's markets? Share them in the comments below, or privately via email.

Charts shown with the TS TradePlan Indicator for NinjaTrader

Precise Trading Plans and Trade Alerts for the:
 E-mini S&P-500 (ES), E-mini Dow (YM), E-mini NASDAQ 100, Euro (6E), Oil (CL) and Gold (GC)