Words of Wisdom from @FuturesTrader71

@FuturesTrader71 on Twitter was tweeting to one of my subscribers, @donahchoo, earlier today and it really resonated with me. I captured the tweets and am posting them here for everyone who reads it to benefit. These are not my words – they are quoted directly from FuturesTrader71. His blog can be found here: www.futurestrader71.com and I highly recommend you check it out.

These are @FuturesTrader71's tweets from Thursday January 28, 2010:

I think what most fail to see is that volume profiling is not a system. It is a way of looking at the action. Everyone must follow a plan

Maybe u r thinking that just because there is an HVN or LVN, then something or another is going to happen? Can be confusing

Better to see it as "ok..this is an area they really liked (HVN)...or disliked (LVN), let's see how they treat it this time"

"and here is what i would expect if it holds/fails and this is how I will hedge my risk"

What most ppl think is: Here's an HVN/LVN, I'm going to get in here because that's what it is. Disappointment follows.

Like I said, it is not a system. Take all pieces and bring in context of an auction. Just like a musician walking in on rehearsal

U don't tell others what u want them to play, u just pick ur spot, read ur sheet and play when it makes sense to the music

Most ppl want to walk in on rehearsal and just start beating their drum or jamming a solo. Feels good for a bit, but doesn't work

Does that make any sense at all? There is a fine line there and it is lost on many ppl. This is why I train my own traders

If u can't find rhythm being played, then don't play ur instrument. Just wait for ur spot or next song. Discipline is key.

For some reason, most ppl just want to play at any cost and at any point in the song with no practice. Brokers make it easy

TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers for the YM, ES, 6E – Friday January 29, 2010

Posting the Subscriber Numbers on the blog for Friday.

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10277, 10192, 10139, 10125, 10070, 10054, 9968, 9932

TraderSmarts Numbers for the ES

1110.25, 1096.75, 1092, 1086.75, 1081.75, 1078.25, 1070.25, 1063

TraderSmarts Numbers for the 6E

1.4160, 1.4126, 1.4069, 1.4040, 1.4000, 1.3985, 1.3948, 1.3932, 1.3898

Swing longs here in the zone mentioned 1.4280 target

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Rejected Thursday right below the 10277. Friday closes out the monthly and weekly charts. Watching how we close. Have a lot of thoughts may do an update to the Daily Chart over the weekend.

6E: This 1.3946 - 1.3932 area is **HUGE** on the bigger pic. Fully expecting 1.4280 before a close under 1.3885 on the daily.

TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers for the YM, ES, CL, and 6E - Thursday January 28, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10395, 10356, 10329, 10309, 10277, 10205, 10168, 10160, 10109
Coming back into the area I mentioned in the 1/24/2010 Daily Chart Update

TraderSmarts Numbers for the ES

1115.25, 1110.25, 1106.5, 1099, 1096.25, 1091, 1085.25

TraderSmarts Numbers for the CL

77.7, 77.32, 76.22, 75.66, 74.64, 74.18, 73.90, 73.56
Should be out of swing shorts from 84.40 - 82.80 range down near the 75 target of CIT
Can look now for swing longs to 77 - 78 area

TraderSmarts Numbers for the 6E

1.4206, 1.4160, 1.4126, 1.4053, 1.4040, 1.4000, 1.3972, 1.3932
1.4280 target of this move up that started tonight

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Coming back into the area (10309 - 10430) I mentioned in the 1/24/2010 Daily Chart Update for a shortable bounce

CL: Can look for swing longs up to 77 - 78 area

6E: Expecting 1.4280 target of this move up that started tonight to be hit before 1.3885 is taken out. 1.3946 - 1.3932 was my BIG area range buy tonight but now if back under and holding 1.3972 I think a test of the low so reason why I left out the 1.3946. Good to be aware of though.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday January 27, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10155, 10185, 10211, 10277, 10329, 10356, 10395 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10129, 10022, 9982 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 5 red days in a row (albeit slightly with a BIG red doji on Tuesday). First time since March 2009 that we have had more than 4 red days in a row. Busy eco day Wednesday with FOMC annc, Geithner, Obama (is there a day he doesn't speak), New home sales, and EIA Petroleum - should be interesting!

CL: EIA Petroleum out in the AM. 3 day consolidation in oil ahead of release. A lot of TraderSmarts Numbers close together due to the consolidation. Be careful of getting caught on the wrong side of a big move using the strategy that I have mentioned before for this inventory release.

Check out the latest Daily Chart Update.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday January 26, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10152, 10208, 10277, 10329, 10356, 10395 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10033, 9972 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Four down days in a row so far. Since the March 2009 lows we have never had more than 4 down days in a row on the YM. Watching to see if we get a 5th on Tuesday.

See the latest Daily Chart Update

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday January 25, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10219, 10243, 10299, 10329, 10356, 10395 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10177, 10044 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Expecting a pause day (doji) or a green candle (close higher)

See the latest updated daily chart: 1/24/2010 Updated Look at the Daily Chart

An Updated Look at the YM Emini Futures - Sunday January 24, 2010

Those that have been following know that there are two areas that I have been targeting for a CIT of this up move off the March 2009 lows. The first is the 10313 – 10625 area and the second is the 11250 - 11875 area. We first reached 10313 on November 16, 20009 and at that time I posted an updated look at the daily chart of the YM.

The angle of ascent since that 11/16/09 date has been NIL. Since 11/16/09 to the most recent high on 1/19/2010 we only gained 345 YM points in a little over 2 months. And we have given that back entirely plus an additional 200 YM points in the last 3 trading days. What we made over the last three days is a pattern called Three Black Crows. And the selling the last three days was made on good volume.

The YM / DOW snapped the uptrend off the March lows on Thursday 1/21/2010 for the first time. The ES / SPX has been the weaker of the two indexes and actually snapped the uptrend off the March lows over a month ago and has since been riding up the south side of the uptrend line. The OEX, which I like to look at as a leading index, has been below the uptrend off the March lows since 11/27/09.

That this significant reversal happened in my first key area, and after a blowoff over the high of the range, and in light of the price action over the last three months - I believe that this is in fact the CIT I have been anticipating and that the HIGH FOR THE YEAR HAS BEEN PRINTED.

What do I expect from here: Typically after Three Black Crows you will either get a pause day like a doji or a close higher. I think if we do get a bounce it is a shortable bounce. I do not expect the YM to get back over 10566. I will be targeting 10309 – 10430 for swing shorts.

ONE KEY THING TO NOTE: SINCE THE MARCH LOWS WE HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN 4 RED DAYS IN A ROW ON THE YM. We just had 3 for Three Black Crows. If we bounce up from here it will look like the typical pattern we have had since the March lows (will look like just another buyable dip). Instead I think it will be a shortable bounce.

So what I am watching for now is a move up to the area I mentioned 10309 – 10430 to be met with selling and selling to a lower low than we make right now. That will be confirmation of the CIT.

In the original Oct 25th look at the daily chart I have a chart with my hand drawn view of how I see price action playing out. So please also see the previous Daily Chart Updates that can be found here: LINK

Also please remember the paragraph in the original October 25th daily chart update which is worth repeating here: Keep in mind that money in trading is made not by being right in your predictions but by being on the right side of the price action. This is just what I see happening. It could or could not happen. I will not try to force my will on the market. The best traders I know don't care what the market is going to do...they just know what THEY are going to do if the market does A or if the market does B. Much better to be prepared to act on what the market does than to try to predict what it is going to do. All that being said the above is my forecast of how I see price action playing out from here.

CL Swing Short Target Hit and Subscriber Numbers for the CL for Friday - January 22, 2010

Subscribers and those who follow this blog know that I had been anticipating a CIT in oil in the 84.40 - 82.80 range. I have posted here and elsewhere that the initial target for that move down was 75.

The CL hit 75 this morning. If you are swing short from the 84.40 - 82.80 range take your profits. This NICE move only took 10 trading days to achieve.

As a bonus here are the TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers for the CL today:

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

78.92, 78.46, 77.7, 77.32, 76.88, 76.22, 75.32, 74.70, 73.56, 72.02

Trade smart and trade well!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday January 22, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10379, 10430, 10447, 10505 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10333, 10277, 10215, 10166 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: We snapped the uptrendline off the March lows today for the first time. That trendline will be in play on any bounce to it.

The angle of ascent since the 11/16/2009 look at the daily chart blog post has been NIL. We gained 345 YM points in a little over 2 months. And we gave it back in two days. To me it looks like a VERY tired market.

As of now the move over 10625 looks like the blowoff I had expected. If we can start closing over 10625 again that outlook could be negated.

Expecting a third day of selling Friday for Three Black Crows on the daily.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday January 21, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10566, 10611, 10662, 10722, 10748 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10534, 10404 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Plunged through 10625 Wednesday and closed below. Again let's watch the close...

On another note the level of ascent since the 11/16/2009 look at the daily chart blog post has been NIL. We gained 345 YM points in 2 months. And at the lows on Wednesday we had given back 2/3 of that. To me it looks like a VERY tired market. AS of now the move over 10625 looks like the blowoff I had expected. If we can start closing over 10625 again that outlook could be negated.

CL: Subscribers take note EIA Petroleum today is at 8 AM Pacific. Natty Gas 1/2 hour before that.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday January 20, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10661, 10688, 10699, 10748 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10615, 10581, 10566, 10532, 10475 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Blasted back over 10625 Tuesday and closed strong. Let's watch the close again...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday January 19, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10618, 10649, 10688 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10566, 10550, 10532, 10475, 10396 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: As expected a blowoff over 10625 followed by nice selling. Couldn't close the week over 10625. Let's watch today's close. Will we get continuation of selling from Friday?

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday January 15, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10673, 10688, 10702, 10748 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10644, 10606, 10566, 10539, 10475

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: A close Wednesday at 10628. A close Thursday at 10663. Two closes over the key 10625 number that I have been talking about. Watching to see where we close the week and if it can close over 10625 3x in a row. I am taking notice of these closes over 10625 however at this point I am still not convinced.

The significance of the Close over 10625 on the YM Emini Futures

This from a subscriber this morning: "I believe the market broke your upside resistance and you said it would be a major break, yet nothing in the newest e-mail u sent......."

In the email/blog post for Wednesday I stated that if the market made it back up to the 10622 number for the third time I didn't expect it to hold resistance and was expecting a blowoff. If you look at the price action that is exactly what happened - except in my view the "blowoff" was very timid. Final close was 10628. I have stated repeatedly that if we start closing over 10625 I will sit up and take notice. So I am taking notice. However as I noted in today's email/blog post - as of now I am still not convinced. Let's see what today brings.

Trade smart and trade well!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday January 14, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10673, 10688, 10748 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10627, 10595, 10539, 10475, 10437, 10389 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

A close today at 10628. Still not convinced.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday January 13, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10592, 10650, 10688 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10576, 10539, 10475, 10437, 10389 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

Recent:
CL: My 82.80 initial target of this move up in CL was hit on Wednesday 1/6/2010. The 84.40 - 82.80 area I have been mentioning for a potential CIT has been money so far. A high of 83.95 on Monday and then selling back through the 82.80 number. Tuesday continued selling. Today EIA Petroleum is released. Targeting an initial move back to 75 on this CIT.

YM: Potential for a 10625 test today in the YM. Rejected at 10620 Monday pre market and then 1 tick over my 10622 Monday near the close. Closing over 10625 will have me sitting up and taking notice. A lower high Tuesday at 10610. IF we get back to the 10622 Number kind of expecting a blowoff over 10625.

Background:
It is worth noting that we broke down (Thanksgiving Dubai news) from the exact 10468 level I mentioned on 10/25/09. See the last paragraph in this post: http://tradersmarts.blogspot.com/2009/11/updated-look-at-daily-chart-of-ym-emini.html

We are now back inside the key range of 10313 - 10625. As I have been saying the thing I am keying on now is what area is taken out first and held below or above. Downside at 10313 or upside at 10625. This will be a telling clue IMO as to probability of CIT.

Closing over 10625 and I sit up and take notice.

See the latest look at the daily chart:
1/1/2010 An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday January 12, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10622, 10650, 10688 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10588, 10566, 10622, 10475, 10437, 10389 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

Recent:
Potential for a 10625 test today in the YM. Rejected at 10620 Monday pre market and then at 1 tick over my 10622 number Monday near the close. Ability to close over 10625 is what I am watching.

CL - TraderSmarts Numbers sent to subscribers. My 82.80 initial target of this move up was hit on Wednesday 1/6/2010. Looking at the 84.40 - 82.80 area for a potential CIT on the daily chart. A high of 83.95 on Monday and then selling back through the 82.80 number.

Background:
It is worth noting that we broke down (Thanksgiving Dubai news) from the exact 10468 level I mentioned on 10/25/09. See the last paragraph in this post: http://tradersmarts.blogspot.com/2009/11/updated-look-at-daily-chart-of-ym-emini.html

We are now back inside the key range of 10313 - 10625. As I have been saying the thing I am keying on now is what area is taken out first and held below or above. Downside at 10313 or upside at 10625. This will be a telling clue IMO as to probability of CIT.

Closing over 10625 and I sit up and take notice.

See the latest look at the daily chart:
1/1/2010 An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday January 11, 2010

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10622, 10647, 10688 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10566, 10622, 10475, 10437 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

It is worth noting that we broke down (Thanksgiving Dubai news) from the exact 10468 level I mentioned on 10/25/09. See the last paragraph in this post: http://tradersmarts.blogspot.com/2009/11/updated-look-at-daily-chart-of-ym-emini.html

We are now back inside the key range of 10313 - 10625. As I have been saying the thing I am keying on now is what area is taken out first and held below or above. Downside at 10313 or upside at 10625. This will be a telling clue IMO as to probability of CIT.

Closing over 10625 and I sit up and take notice.

See the latest look at the daily chart:
1/1/2010 An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers for the YM, ES, and CL – Friday December 8, 2010

As a bonus this morning I have posted the subscriber numbers for the YM ES and CL to the blog:

NFP today.

A few weeks ago I asked if people would prefer the CL or 6E to the GC. The response was pretty even for all three contracts. I think what I am going to do, for now, is choose the third contract at my discretion on a day by day basis. Today we will focus on the CL. I have two targets on it for this current move up that I tweeted last week, 82.80 minimum and then 84.40.

My 82.80 initial target of this move up in CL was hit Wednesday. Looking at the 84.4 - 82.8 area for a potential CIT on the daily chart.

Move up Monday and then flatline. Market on hold all week until NFP today. As stated since Monday I am not believing this move up. Would not be surprised to see Monday's move erased. Market is still in the 10625 - 10313 key range that I have mentioned since the October look at the daily chart. If we start closing over 10625 I will sit up and take notice.

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10666, 10622, 10579, 10531, 10490, 10437, 10412, 10389, 10363

TraderSmarts Numbers for the ES

1142.5, 1140.5, 1138.75, 1134.5, 1129, 1122.5, 1121.25, 1118.75, 1117.25
Obviously 1125 is support - I don't see it holding on next test and see a void

TraderSmarts Numbers for the CL

84.4*, 83.15, 82.80*, 82.56, 81.41, 80.66, 79.31, 78.58
Looking at the 84.4 - 82.8 range for a possible CIT on the daily

Trade smart and trade well!

Please also see the blog post 1/1/2010 An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday January 7, 2009

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10506, 10531, 10579, 10622 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10444, 10410, 10389, 10307 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

Note on CL. I have had a 82.80 minimum target of this up move for over a week that was finally hit on Wednesday. 84.40 is the higher target. I am looking at the 84.40 - 82.80 range for a potential CIT on the daily chart.

I could say a lot about the action Monday but I will leave it at this: I am not convinced. What will it take to convince me? If we start closing over 10625 I will sit up and take notice. I wouldn't be surprised to see Monday's move erased.

It is worth noting that we broke down (Thanksgiving Dubai news) from the exact 10468 level I mentioned on 10/25/09. See the last paragraph in this post: http://tradersmarts.blogspot.com/2009/11/updated-look-at-daily-chart-of-ym-emini.html

We are now back inside the key range of 10313 - 10625. As I have been saying the thing I am keying on now is what area is taken out first and held below or above. Downside at 10313 or upside at 10625. This will be a telling clue IMO as to probability of CIT.

Please also see the blog post 1/1/2010 An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday January 6, 2009

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10490, 10516, 10531, 10579, 10622 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10444, 10410, 10389, 10307 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

I could say a lot about the action Monday but I will leave it at this: I am not convinced. What will it take to convince me? If we start closing over 10625 I will sit up and take notice. I wouldn't be surprised to see Monday's move erased.

It is worth noting that we broke down (Thanksgiving Dubai news) from the exact 10468 level I mentioned on 10/25/09. See the last paragraph in this post: http://tradersmarts.blogspot.com/2009/11/updated-look-at-daily-chart-of-ym-emini.html

We are now back inside the key range of 10313 - 10625. As I have been saying the thing I am keying on now is what area is taken out first and held below or above. Downside at 10313 or upside at 10625. This will be a telling clue IMO as to probability of CIT.

Please also see the blog post 1/1/2010 An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

TraderSmarts Subscriber Numbers for the YM, ES, and CL - Tuesday January 5, 2009

As a bonus today I am posting the subscriber email for Tuesday January 5, 2009...

A few weeks ago I asked if people would prefer the CL or 6E to the GC. The response was pretty even for all three contracts. I think what I am going to do, for now, is choose the third contract at my discretion on a day by day basis. I am bored with the GC so today we will focus on the CL. I have two targets on it for this current move up that I tweeted last week, 82.80 minimum and then 84.40.

I could say a lot about the action Monday but it is late and I am tired so I will leave it at this: I am not convinced. What will it take to convince me? If we start closing over 10625 I will sit up and take notice. I wouldn't be surprised to see Monday's move erased.

Here are your TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM, ES, & CL for Tuesday January 5, 2009

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM

10622, 10574, 10531, 10518, 10451, 10410, 10389, 10307

TraderSmarts Numbers for the ES

1142.5, 1137, 1132.75, 1128.5, 1121.25, 1113.5, 1110.5, 1106

TraderSmarts Numbers for the CL

84.4*, 82.8*, 82.38, 81.68, 81.31, 80.88, 80.57

Trade smart and trade well!

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday January 4, 2010

First trading day of the new year! With the thin volume the last two weeks I am sure everyone is excited to get back into the swing of things. A word of caution though - don't be so eager you over trade your plan. The market will still be here on Tuesday and the rest of the year :)

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

10425, 10449, 10478, 10531 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

10389, 10307, 10272, 10228, 10162 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

It is worth noting that we broke down (Thanksgiving Dubai news) from the exact 10468 level I mentioned on 10/25/09. See the last paragraph in this post: http://tradersmarts.blogspot.com/2009/11/updated-look-at-daily-chart-of-ym-emini.html

We are now back inside the key range of 10313 - 10625. As I have been saying the thing I am keying on now is what area is taken out first and held below or above. Downside at 10313 or upside at 10625. This will be a telling clue IMO as to probability of CIT.

Please also see the blog post 1/1/2010 An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM

An Updated Look at the Daily Chart of the YM Emini Futures - 1/1/2010

First let's review where we came from: In October when price was at 10,000 I anticipated a fast 500 point drop and then a move up to the 10468 area. That is exactly what transpired. Price has now been stuck at the 10468 area ceiling for a little over a month with various dips and moves back to that area. Most recently focusing on the 12/18/2009 low at 10201 to the high on 12/29/2009 at 10526 I am viewing this price action as a classic bull trap. Granted we have had holiday volume but the declining volume is textbook bull trap volume. We also now have 5 months of negative divergence.

What do I expect from here? The answer is a fairly fast move down to the 10156 – 10066 area. Once this area is reached two things will have been accomplished. 1 price will be back below the key 10313 price that I have repeatedly mentioned and 2 we will have taken out the start of the bull trap low at 10201.

From the 10156 – 10066 area we probably get a final test of the 10313 price before selling and snapping the psychologically important 10,000 number. If we can sell below 10,000 and then have 10,000 give resistance it will be a good indication that we are on our way back to test the March 2009 lows and confirmation of the CIT will be in effect.

Please remember the paragraph in the original October post which is worth repeating here: Keep in mind that money in trading is made not by being right in your predictions but by being on the right side of the price action. This is just what I see happening. It could or could not happen. I will not try to force my will on the market. The best traders I know don't care what the market is going to do...they just know what THEY are going to do if the market does A or if the market does B. Much better to be prepared to act on what the market does than to try to predict what it is going to do. All that being said the above is my forecast of how I see price action playing out from here.

Below are the original 10/25/09 and 11/16/09 posts intact:

FROM NOVEMBER 16, 2009


On October 25th I wrote a blog post detailing my thoughts on the big pic. We have reached one of the two key areas I was focusing on for a major CIT. I am intently watching the current price area for signs of an imminent CIT. It may or may not happen here. Above is the updated chart of what price action has done since the October 25th blog post and below is the orignal post and chart intact.

FROM OCTOBER 25, 2009:


We are experiencing what could be described as topping action in the major indices. As I mentioned in a tweet on Friday we have had 3 months of negative divergence on the daily chart. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow make a swift drop down to about 9500 from here and then one final push to new highs around the 10468 area before doing the final CIT (change in trend) and heading back towards the March 2009 lows. I have been calling for 10313 - 10625 for some time now and I still think that this area, at a minimum, will be tested before we finally roll over. This is the overall price action I see playing out in the longer term.

Keep in mind that money in trading is made not by being right in your predictions but by being on the right side of the price action. This is just what I see happening. It could or could not happen. I will not try to force my will on the market. The best traders I know don't care what the market is going to do...they just know what THEY are going to do if the market does A or if the market does B. Much better to be prepared to act on what the market does than to try to predict what it is going to do. All that being said the above is my forecast of how I see price action playing out from here.

Note: The black line on the chart is the OVERALL price direction I am anticipating. I do not think we will go straight down like the black line in the chart. Obviously price will ebb and flow, the main point is that the 10313 - 10625 price area should be touched to the upside before we have a major CIT. By major CIT I mean that once price reaches this major CIT area the march lows should be in play before any new highs.

The other area I have been keying on for a major CIT is 11250 - 11875. So, in conclusion, I will be expecting a rather fast move down to 9500 or so from here, then a move back to 10468 or so. Once we are at the 10468 area I will reassess the situation and most likely either anticipate a major CIT is in the works or be on the lookout for 11250 - 11875 as the major CIT area and then a move back towards the March 2009 lows.