Thursday, July 21, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday July 22, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12769, 12816, 12829, 12854, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12687, 12661, 12646, 12626, 12605, 12586, 12559, 12533, 12508, 12495, 12473, 12442, 12430, 12417, 12334, 12294, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163  Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12854 extreme short. 12769 highest odds short FTU. 12605 range long. 12533 highest odds long FTD. 12430 extreme long.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday July 21, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12559, 12586, 12605, 12626, 12646, 12661, 12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12829, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12533, 12508, 12495, 12473, 12442, 12430, 12417, 12334, 12294, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12740 extreme short. 12661 - 12646 highest odds short FTU. 12586 range short. 12430 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday July 20, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12533, 12559, 12586, 12605, 12626, 12646, 12661, 12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12516, 12473, 12442, 12430, 12417, 12334, 12294, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12740 extreme short. 12661 - 12646 highest odds short FTU. 12586 range short. 12430 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Monday, July 18, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday July 19, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12391, 12406, 12417, 12430, 12444, 12461, 11474, 12494, 12521, 12531, 12559, 12605, 12626, 12646 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12363, 12332, 1295, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12646 extreme short. 12525 - 12521 highest odds short FTU. 12406 - 12391 range short. 12278 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Sunday, July 17, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday July 18, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12406, 12417, 12430, 12444, 12461, 12474, 12494, 12521, 12533, 12559, 12581, 12605, 12626, 12646 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12363, 12337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12646 extreme short. 12525 - 12521 highest odds short FTU. 12494 - 12474 zone for range short. 12278 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Sports, Trading, and the Psychology of Improvement.

Trading is a lot like athletics. All good traders and all good athletes are constantly trying to improve and perfect their game. If you are not working on getting better than by default you are either getting worse or stagnating at best. And if you stagnate long enough eventually the game will surpass you.

"In the confrontation between the stream and the rock, the stream always wins - not through strength but by perseverance" - H. Jackson Brown

Sports change. Athletes change. The game gets faster and harder, players get younger and stronger. Markets and participants change in the same way.

Jerry Rice was arguably the greatest receiver of all time and his off season workout routines were the stuff of legend. Nobody worked harder than Jerry at becoming better. Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time thanks in large part to his "Breakfast Club" workouts. All great players know that it takes hard work to become great.

"Everybody has talent, but ability takes hard work" - Michael Jordan

Lately I have been working on a complete overhaul in my trading. The reason I am doing this is not because what I have been doing my entire career suddenly stopped working. It is because I think I can become better. It is the constant quest for improvement.

"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self-improvement, about being better than you were the day before" - Steve Young

For my entire career I have been a fader. Either fading what I perceive to be an extreme or fading a pullback in the direction of the dominant trend. I have become adapt at identifying potential turning points in the market. It is not uncommon for one of the TS #'s to be the high or low of a move. So while I can consistently get the turns I am missing out on a lot of the "middle" of the market. The part that a lot of traders like to call the sweet spot of the trade.

You often hear traders say "I don't care about picking the top or the bottom - I just want to capture the meat of the move" or something to that effect. Often times with my style of trading I miss out on a lot of the meat of the move.

So I have been working on incorporating momentum into my trading.

So far I am not seeing the results I expect. That's okay. I am going to keep working on it. Eventually it will pay off. Change doesn't happen over night. Rome wasn't built in a day. In the long run I am confident that these changes I am incorporating will only make me a better trader.

"If you do the work you get rewarded. There are no shortcuts in life" - Michael Jordan

Why did Tiger Woods change his swing after he had just won the 1997 Masters by a record 12 shots? To get better of course. But what happened first was he got "worse" or so it seemed. He only won a single tournament in 1998 and appeared to be in a serious slump. Change, however, takes time.

In 1999 Tiger won 8 tournaments including the PGA Championship. He ended 1999 winning the last 4 tournaments of the season. Then in 2000 he won his first two starts making it six wins in a row. In 2000 he went on to dominate the sport winning three Majors: the U.S. Open, the British Open, and the PGA Championship. And he placed 5th in the Masters. He also won the Canadian Open (something the great Jack Nicklaus never did). He ended the 2000 season with 9 PGA Tour wins including 3 of the 4 Majors.

The swing changes appeared to be paying off!

In 2001 the dominance continued. He won the Masters, effectively completing what is now known as the "Tiger Slam". He finished the 2001 season with 5 PGA Tour wins. In 2002 he won 5 PGA Tour events including two Majors: The Masters and the U.S. Open.

But then in 2003 he "only" won 5 PGA Tour events but no Majors. In 2004 he only won 1 PGA Tour event but no Majors. What was the problem and why was Woods "slumping" again?

It just so happened he was in the middle of another swing overhaul!

What happened next? Tiger went on to dominate the sport once again. In 2005 he won 6 PGA Tour events including 2 Majors. In 2006 he won 8 PGA Tour events including 2 Majors. In 2007 he won 7 PGA Tour events including 1 Major and then in 2008 he won 4 PGA Tour events including 1 Major. In 2009 he won 6 PGA Tour events but no Majors then in late 2009 we all know what happened.

In 2010 he didn't win a single tournament and is win-less in 2011 as well missing tournaments and not playing in Major championships for the first time. Apparently he is injured and is undergoing more swing changes. He has always said his goal was to beat Jack Nicklaus' 18 career Majors. Tiger has 5 wins to go. We'll see what happens.

"The will to win is important, but the will to prepare is vital" - Joe Paterno

When Tiger was in the middle of one of his major swing overhauls he didn't expect the results to be immediate. The media constantly questioned him as to what was "wrong" but he knew what he was doing. In fact most people thought he was crazy for changing up a swing that had won the Masters by 12 strokes. When he started his second swing overhaul there were even more naysayers.

Tiger however had formulated a plan and was working through it. He could see the bit by bit progress he was making when the results to the outside world appeared to be negative. When he was sucking balls in tournament play he would say things like "Well I'm really happy with the way I'm swinging the club". Some people in the media accused him of being delusional. Tiger had a vision for the end result before anybody else could see it. He knew that positive change would surely come with time and perseverance.

I feel the same way with the overhaul I am making in my trading.

Yoig Berra once said: "Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting!"

That's the way I feel.

Adapt or die!

Friday, July 15, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday July 15, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12408, 12417, 12430, 12444, 12461, 12474, 12494, 12521, 12533, 12559, 12581, 12605, 12626, 12646, 12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12829, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12363, 12337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12646 extreme short. 12494 highest odds short FTU. 12444 range short. 12278 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday July 14, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12408, 12417, 12430, 12444, 12461, 12474, 12494, 12521, 12533, 12559, 12581, 12605, 12626, 12646, 12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12829, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12363, 12337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12646 extreme short. 12474 - 12461 highest odds short FTU. 12430 range short. 12278 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

The 12430 TS # has been absolutely amazing support the last 2 days (in the cash session). We flushed through that a/h on the Moody's news. I would think a FTU test of the 12430 would be a good opportunity for a short. The 12337 TS # which was range long on Tuesday held (to the tick) for the Moody's news. If this gives way I think we can use 12198 as the eventual target with support at range long 12278 important along the way.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Updated TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday July 13, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12455, 12474, 12498, 12533, 12559, 12533, 12605, 12626, 12646, 12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12829, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12430, 12417, 12363, 12337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12646 extreme short. 12559 highest odds short FTU. 12337 and 12278 two spots to look for range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Monday, July 11, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday July 12, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12417, 12430, 12455, 12533, 12465, 12605, 12626, 12646, 12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12829, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

2363, 12337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198, 12163 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12646 extreme short. 12533 highest odds short FTU. 12337 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday July 11, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12565, 12605, 12626, 12646, 12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12829, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12533, 12498, 12474, 12430, 12417, 12363, 12337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12646 highest odds short FTU. 12498 range long. 12430 - 12417 highest odds long FTD. 12212 - 12198 extreme long.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday July 8, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12687, 12714, 12732, 12740, 12756, 12829, 12869 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12654, 12626, 12605, 12572, 12558, 12533, 12498, 12474, 12430, 12417, 12363, 13337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12829 extreme short. 12753 highest odds short FTU. 12714 - 12687 still the zone for range short. 12626 range long. 12533 highest odds long FTD. 12212 - 12198 extreme long.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday July 7, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12611, 12654, 12672, 12678, 12732, 12740 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12604, 12574, 12549, 12533, 12498, 12474, 12430, 12417, 12363, 13337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12740 - 12732 extreme short. 12678 - 12672 highest odds short FTU. 12654 and 12611 - 12604 two areas to look for range short. I realize we are over the 12611 now. It is an important inflection point and the line in the sand for Thursday session. If we hold under this area then we can target the extreme long eventually. Holding over and extended target is the extreme short. 12533 - 12498 range long. 12212 - 12198 extreme long. 12430 - 12417 is important FTD but I am thinking that if we get through the 12474 TS # we could see some accelerated selling.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday July 6, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12550, 12574, 12604, 12611, 12672, 12678 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12533, 12498, 12474, 12430, 12417, 12363, 13337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12678 - 12672 highest odds short FTU. 12611 - 12604 range short. 12430 - 12417 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD. 12533 important TS # and line in the sand.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday July 5, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12508, 12533, 12555, 12611, 12672, 12678 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12486, 12430, 12417, 12363, 13337, 12306, 12278, 12236, 12212, 12198 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12678 - 12672 highest odds short FTU. 12555 - 12533 range short. 12430 - 12417 range long. 12212 - 12198 highest odds long FTD.

Monday, July 4, 2011

Happy 4th of July!!!

A little more than two hundred years ago our forefathers took up arms and laid down their lives to provide us the freedom we now call our own.

Do we truly appreciate it? Are we grateful? Do we remember?

As traders we experience another type of freedom. Freedom from the 9-5. Freedom from bosses and set schedules. In 24 hour markets we can pick and choose where we work and when we work. If we don't feel like coming in for the day that is our prerogative. We answer to no one but ourselves and our own P/L. Don't take it for granted.

You often here me saying we trade for freedom not to be a slave to the screens. The lifestyle that this profession provides is second to none. I hear people talking about living, eating, and breathing the markets. That's great and I love the market too but don't give up your freedom to make the market your master.

There is yet another freedom that we can experience and that is freedom in Christ. When Jesus died on the cross for us he set us free from sin and death. He made it possible for us to live the abundant life. Over 150 years before America was formed the Pilgrims fled religious persecution in England and ended up in what would eventually become America in search of religious freedom. We can freely worship God in the way we choose because of the freedoms that our forefathers gave us. In America that includes whatever faith you choose to practice not just Christianity. Don't take it for granted.

While we eat our BBQ and visit with our family and friends and set off fireworks this 4th of July let's remember the real reason we celebrate today. Let's remember those who gave their lives many years ago so that we could enjoy the freedom that this great country provides. And let's give special thanks to God for giving us the ultimate freedom - freedom in Christ.

Have a happy, safe, and prosperous 4th of July!

Happy Independence Day!