Sunday, February 27, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday February 28. 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

(12137, 12153, 12162, 12186), (12226, 12240), (12277, 12284, 12308, 12335), (12374, 12404), 12479 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

(12089, 12077 - 12071, 12049, 12030), (12008 - 11998), (11969, 11932), (11906, 11898, 11864) Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

I did something a little different today in that I put in brackets how I group together the different areas for my own trading. I hesitate to do this because I don't like to influence people too much but I am curious to know if this helps or hinders. Please shoot me an email or a tweet or drop a comment on the blog, if you feel like it, letting me know what you think. Thanks!

A lot of TS #'s for some contracts - don't let it distract you. Focus on where price is and trade it!

YM: 12240 - 12226 highest odds short FTU. 12479 extreme short. 12162 - 12137 still the range short. 11898 highest odds long FTD. 12089 - 12030 range long and can be broken up into 12089 - 12071 aggressive range long and 12049 - 12030 conservative range long.

Friday, February 25, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday February 25, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12112, 12137, 12162, 12186, 12202, 12232, 12248, 12277 - 12284, 12308, 12335, 12374, 12404, 12479 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12089 - 12077, 12030, 12008 - 11997, 11969, 11932, 11906, 11898 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

A lot of TS #'s for some contracts - don't let it distract you. Focus on where price is and trade it!

YM: 12284 - 12277 highest odds short FTU. 12479 extreme short. 12162 - 12137 range short. 11898 highest odds long FTD. 12008 - 11998 still the range long.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday February 24, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12137, 12162, 12186, 12202, 12232, 12248, 12277 - 12284, 12308, 12335, 12374, 12404, 12479 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12125, 12112, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11997, 11969, 11932, 11906, 11898 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

A lot of TS #'s for some contracts - don't let it distract you. Focus on where price is and trade it!

YM: 12284 - 12277 highest odds short FTU. 12479 extreme short. 12137 aggressive short. 11898 highest odds long FTD. 12008 - 11998 range long.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday February 23, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12232, 12248, 12277 - 12284, 12308, 12335, 12374, 12404, 12479 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12202, 12186, 12162, 12146, 12125, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11997 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12284 - 12277 range short. 12479 extreme short. 12248 - 12232 aggressive short. 12008 - 11998 highest odds long FTD. 12125 - 12104 range long.

Monday, February 21, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday February 22, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12280, 12308, 12335, 12374, 12404, 12450, 12479 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12269, 12248, 12232, 12213, 12186, 12162, 12146, 12125 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12374 - 12335 range short. 12479 extreme short. 12186 highest odds long FTD. 12248 range long.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday February 18, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12291, 12305, 12344, 12365, 12404 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12269 - 12262, 12248 - 12242, 12227, 12215 - 12204, 12186 - 12182, 12164 - 12160, 12149 - 12143, 12125 - 12121

Trade smart and trade well!

The way the week is setting up there is NO REASON for equity not to close at the highs.

YM: 12344 highest odds short FTU. 12149 - 12143 highest odds long FTD. 12269 - 12262 range long and immediate line in the sand. Under Thursday range long 12227 and holding and a move down to 12149 is possible. Not what I am expecting - see above.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thurdsay February 17, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12242 - 12248, 12267, 12291, 12305, 12320, 12344 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12227, 12215 - 12204, 12186 - 12182, 12164 - 12160, 12149 - 12143, 12125 - 12121, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

Another full economic schedule. Let's see how the day unfolds. Equity is a market that is getting in need of some vertical development.

YM: 12344 highest odds short FTU. 12267 still the range short. 12149 - 12143 highest odds long FTD. 12227 range long and immediate line in the sand. Under and holding and a move down to 12149 is possible.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday February 16, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12242 - 12248, 12267, 12291, 12305, 12320, 12344 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12215 - 12204, 12186 - 12182, 12164 - 12160, 12149 - 12143, 12125 - 12121, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

Hardly any changes in TraderSmarts Numbers for equity for Tuesday. However with the economic catalysts the range could expand. Would be a good thing!

YM: 12344 highest odds short FTU. 12267 range short. 12149 - 12143 highest odds long FTD. 12186 - 12182 range long.

Monday, February 14, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday February 15, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12242 - 12248, 12267, 12291, 12305, 12320 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12215 - 12204, 12186 - 12182, 12164 - 12160, 12149 - 12143, 12125 - 12121, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

12305 highest odds short FTU. 12267 range short. 12143 highest odds long FTD. 12215 - 12204 range long.

How To Fix Your Thinking

Here is a little example of how to fix your thinking...if it needs fixing. I know mine did...constant work in progress.

I used to say things like this - I should have longed the 1361.7 in GC - it was $$

Now when I have that thought (can't prevent self from having thoughts - but can be aware of our thoughts and correct them)...

I go... Yep that would have been a great trade. What a great area I had as support in GC. Good job Tony. Good job for scaling out of short there! Okay NEXT. What's the next trade Tony?

And I leave it at that. Good job, Next, what's the next trade???

Where as before I would think "I should have longed that 1361.7 GC" - Then thoughts turn to the EVER SO DAMAGING negative self talk.

Damnit why DIDN'T I long that area. Damnit she popped 60 ticks off that number with only 1 tick of heat. F*** I am such an idiot! WHY didn't I take that. Then you start speaking out loud and confessing out loud what an idiot you are. etc etc etc.

Been there? Yeah me too. Don't do it! Give yourself credit for identifying a good area. For taking the scale of + 51 ticks there. And then move on to the next trade.

It is impossible to find new opportunity when you are berating yourself. And why would you berate yourself for identifying a great S/R area and having the foresight to scale out there?

We are not perfect - don't expect to be. Expect to be profitable. What we think about and what we speak (confess) is the starting point of all things.

"Thoughts are things" - Napolean Hill

"As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he" - Proverbs 23:7

"Keep thy heart with all diligence; for out of it are the issues of life" - Proverbs 4:23

"It is not what goes into the mouth that defiles a person, but what comes out of the mouth, this defiles a person" - Mathew 15:11

In other words it is not what we eat that makes us unclean - it is the negative crap we speak that makes us unclean.

In 2 Corinthians 10:5 the Bible talks about capturing every thought and bringing it into obedience of the knowledge of Christ. Think about that for a moment. Capture every thought. Bring it into obedience of the truth.

What we think about and what we speak (confess) is the starting point of all things. Choose your thoughts, and words, wisely.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday February 14, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12242 - 12248, 12267, 12291, 12305, 12320 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12215 - 12204, 12186 - 12182, 12164 - 12160, 12149 - 12143, 12125 - 12121, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12305 highest odds short FTU. 12267 range short. 12143 highest odds long FTD. 12215 range long.

Small Lot Traders Unite

On Friday I had a conversation with one of my subscribers and it brought to light again the struggle that small lot traders face on a daily basis.

I thought it would be a good idea to write a blog post with the hopes that in the comments section those of you who trade small lots could "compare notes" and discuss what works best for you in terms of managing your trades.

A while back I did a survey and one of the questions I asked was how many contracts do you trade? The reason I put 1,2,3,4 or more than 4 is because once you are able to scale in 1/4's or 1/8ths it makes managing the trade that much easier and size, as far as scaling goes, becomes irrelevant. It doesn't matter if you are trading 4 contracts or 48 contracts your exit strategy can be the same.

For each trade that I put on in the Intraday Alerts you can count on having 4 good spots to scale out. Sometimes I will scale in 1/8ths but really that just gives added flexibility. The goal of every new trader should be to build up their contract size to be able to scale in 1/4's as quickly as possible.

I have often said that you don't increase your earnings in trading by trading more or booking more points - you increase your earnings by hiring more employees (adding more contracts). Once you are consistently profitable with a 4 lot then it is easy to increase size and be profitable with an 8 lot, or a 24 lot, etc.

But this blog post is for those who trade 1 - 2 lots. Even the difference between trading 2 lots vs 1 is paramount. With one lot you are all in or all out. Period. With 2 at least you can book something and still leave on 1 contract for a potential runner. If you are trading 1 lot, and profitable, I would encourage you to up your contract size to 2 immediately.

A typical scenario is a trader with a small account and only trading 2 contracts. Considering I give 4 good places to scale with each entry in the Intraday Alerts how do you manage that if you are only trading a 2 lot?

You have a few options:

A) You can scale 1 C at 1st scale target and then immediately move trade to + 1 and then trail the 2nd contract with the objective of trying to get a runner.

B) Scale 1 C at first target and move stop on 2nd C to make trade a scratch if hits. So if first target is + 13 ticks then you move stop on 2nd C to - 12 ticks, etc. Then when second target hits you move stop to + 1, etc.

C) Don't take scale target 1 but instead scale 1 C at 2nd target and then move stop to + 1 and trail last C for a potential runner.

D) Scale 1C at target 1 and 1C at target 2 and be done.

E) Play hit and run and scale both C's at target 1.

F) I am sure there are many more - post your small lot strategy in the commments!

There are a lot of options but frankly I don't know what works best because I am not in that situation. And obviously results are going to vary over time. That is the point of this blog post to get you guys talking about what DOES work best. So in the comments feel free to post your small lot strategy, or the struggles you face trading small lots, and hopefully we can get a good conversation going with expertise from those in the know - the small lot traders!

I know that I have some subscribers who have had considerable success trading small lots and I am hoping that they will offer their advice and expertise in the comments as well. Thanks all!

Thursday, February 10, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Friday February 11 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12164, 12204, 12242 - 12251, 12291, 12320 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12149, 12125, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998, 11969, 11932, 11906, 11898, 11873, 11854, 11822 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12251 - 12242 highest odds short FTU. 12320 extreme short. 12008 - 11998 highest odds long FTD. 12125 - 12104 still the range long. 11898 extreme long.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM - Thursday February 9th 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12198, 12208, 12242 - 12251, 12291, 12320 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12172, 12149, 12125, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998, 11969, 11932, 11906, 11898, 11873, 11854, 11822 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12251 - 12242 highest odds short FTU. 12320 extreme short. 12048 - 12026 highest odds long FTD with 12008 - 11998 significant under that. 12125 - 12104 range long. 11898 extreme long.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday February 9, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12180, 12198, 12242, 12320 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures 

12149, 12125, 12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998, 11969, 11932, 11906, 11898, 11873, 11854, 11822 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12242 highest odds short FTU. 12320 extreme short. 12048 - 12026 highest odds long FTD. 12149 - 12125 range long. 11898 extreme long.

Monday, February 7, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Tuesday February 8, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12125, 12164, 12242 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

12104, 12089 - 12077, 12048, 12026, 12008 - 11998, 11969, 11932, 11906, 11898, 11873, 11854, 11822 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: 12164 highest odds short FTU. 12242 extreme short. 12008 - 11998 highest odds long FTD. 12089 - 12077 range long. 11898 extreme long.

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Monday February 7, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12089, 12111, 12125, 12164 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures 

12046, 12027, 12008 - 11998, 11969, 11932, 11907, 11898, 11873, 11854, 11822 Supports

YM: 12164 highest odds short FTU. 12125 another high odds spot to consider short FTU. 11898 highest odds long FTD. 12027 aggressive long.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM - Friday February 4, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12047, 12125, 12164 Resistance 

12008 - 11998, 11972, 11932, 11907, 11893, 11873, 11854, 11822, 11794, 11750

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: NFP Friday and I am still expecting a massive squeeze higher in equity. Last Friday we had a crushing red candle. I am expecting this Friday to be a huge white candle. Expecting to close the week at the highs in equity and for this Friday to be a complete inversion of last Friday.

Each resistance level is an excellent spot to consider short. The higher we go up the higher the odds become for a reversal. So 12164 is the highest odds short FTU. 11872 - 11854 highest odds long FTD. 11972 excellent spot to consider long.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Thursday February 3, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

12976, 12998 - 12008, 12047, 12125, 12164 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures

11962, 11932, 11907, 11893, 11873, 11854, 11822, 11794, 11750 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Still expecting a massive squeeze higher in equity. 12164 highest odds short FTU. 12047 excellent spot to consider short. 11872 - 11854 highest odds long FTD. 11906 excellent spot to consider long.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

TraderSmarts Numbers for the YM Emini Futures - Wednesday February 2, 2011

Support becomes resistance and vice versa...

11998 - 12008, 12047, 12125, 12164 Resistance on the YM Emini Futures 

11962, 11932, 11907, 11893, 11873, 11854, 11822, 11794, 11750 Supports

Trade smart and trade well!

YM: Expectation is for a massive squeeze higher in Wednesday session for equity. 12164 highest odds short FTU. 12047 excellent spot to consider short. 11872 - 11854 highest odds long FTD. 11906 excellent spot to consider long.